What steps are being taken to improve the accuracy of projected enrollment for the upcoming year, given this year’s unexpected increases? How will resource allocation, including staffing and teacher stipends, be adjusted when actual enrollment exceeds projections?
According to the source of the question, Lakeside’s projected enrollment (for example) for 2023-24 was 527, despite ending the prior year at 546 and ongoing population growth. Current enrollment has reached 576, creating an understaffing scenario with a student-teacher ratio of 18.8 instead of 18.5. While two teachers were added, other resources remained unchanged.
Accurate projections are critical to securing resources, maintaining manageable class sizes, and avoiding last-minute adjustments as the 2024-25 budget is developed.
Lakeside's 2024-25 enrollment projection was set at 530 students. This projection was based on the actual number of enrolled students as of September 30, 2023, which included current 5th graders zoned for Lakeside and enrolled 6th and 7th graders. A cohort progression ratio—a method grounded in historical and projected trends—was applied to this baseline. For a detailed overview of the methodology, you can refer to the following resource: Enrollment Projections Overview.
Looking ahead, the starting point for the 2025-26 school year projection will be the actual enrollment as of September 30, 2024, with the cohort progression ratio adjusted to reflect the growth seen during the 2024-25 school year. The current projection for Lakeside for 2025-26 is 597 students.
The 2025-26 school year budget will be adopted in May 2025. To account for enrollment variability, staffing plans include contingencies to support schools exceeding their projections. Additionally, there may be flexibility to adjust other resources as needed. We work closely with principals to address specific needs when projections differ from actual enrollment. However, it’s important to note that these contingencies are limited, as budgets are not reduced for schools whose enrollment falls below projections.
This approach aims to provide the most accurate projections possible while maintaining flexibility to support schools experiencing unexpected growth. For the current school year, the difference between the ACPS projected growth and actual enrollment was 133 students, less than a one (1) percent variance. Source: October Long Range Planning report to the School Board
Click here to access the ACPS Annual Class Size Report presented to the School Board in October 2024.
Answer from the Budget and Planning Staff